Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, Updated and Expanded Edition
Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, Updated and Expanded Edition – Review
At first look, this book shows to be a well-documented denial of the claims for man-made global warming. On closer examination, some flaws reveal up. 1) The major argument for man-made global warming is that CO2 and extra greenhouse gases increase international temperatures by well-established natural principles. As far as I can see, Singer and Avery do not even address the physics of greenhouse gases. 2) To generate temperature predictions from these natural principles, climatologists use computer models (Global Circulation Models). Singer and Avery describe these “unverified computer models” “so complex and massive that they can only be run on supercomputers” (pp 176-177). It’s true that they are complex and massive, but not that they are unverified. Global Circulation Models can’t explain regional climate – they are not fine-grained enough, and can’t explain remote past climate – the models involve data inputs that are not available for the remote past. But they can explain and predict average international temperatures, and hot temperature changes are simply explained by greenhouse gases. (If you think we shouldn’t use special models, finish now looking at weather forecasts – same physics, similar great computer models, various time scale and geographic scope.) 3) Their opposition to CO2 as an explanation rarely leads to bizarre statements: “The amounts of CO2 previously added to the atmosphere must already have ‘used up’ much – and perhaps most – of CO2’s forcing capability” (page 10). This appears to be a reference to the fact that the effect of CO2 on temperature is logarithmic. However, we’re nowhere near done with simply adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Under the most optimistic scenarios, the percentage increase in CO2 in the future will be greater than the percentage increase to date. More importantly, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for about 100 years, and its effects on temperature increase over time, so the impact of CO2 on international temperature is immediately beginning. 4) As an alternative to man-made global warming, Singer and Avery suggest a 1500 year open cycle. They significantly overstate the evidence for that cycle. They claim a significant quantity of evidence for the cycle from ice cores, when the only statistically substantial evidence is from a Greenland ice core, and then only up to the result of the last ice age. As piece of their evidence for the cycle, they cite a paper by Braun et al, whose authors speak “that the 1,470-year cycles ended with the Ice Age.” (Singer & Avery page 30). 5) Even if a 1500 year cycle lives, it is not an alternative explanation for global warming. At most, it is a incomplete explanation, and one for which there is no individual control. Nothing in Singer and Avery refutes the physics of greenhouse gases or disproves that greenhouse gases are impacting international temperatures. And production of greenhouse gases is, at least partially, under our control. Disclaimer: I am not a climate scientist. I believe I have that in common with most of the critics of this book. If you want to be an fully informed consumer, I’d effectively encourage you to see what climate scientists believe of the book. I think I’m not originally supposed to simply put URL’s here, so do a web search on “Real Climate.” There’s groups of discussion on the site on global warming and greenhouse gases. In particular, see an article from 20 Nov 2006 originally called “Avery and Singer: Unstoppable warm air.” When you want a break from the precise details, I’d also recommend “The Sheep Albedo Feedback” from 1 Apr 2007.