Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability
Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability – Review
Two Billion Cars is a very educational book on transportation and sustainability issues. The basis of the book is that currently we have one billion cars, but in twenty years, the planet will have about two billion cars. If there are no changes, this growth in cars will be disastrous in periods of energy usage, congestion, and global warming. The first two chapters are fairly dry, but the book makes further interesting in chapter 3, “Breaking Detroit’s Hold on Energy and Climate Policy”, which is a terrific brief history on how America became to be so car-centric. The book will appeal most to people interested in sustainability issues as they relate to transportation and climate change. Points earned in the book: 1. Almost all the growth in vehicles will come from India and China, with yearly growth rates in vehicles about 7-8 percent annually. The United States has a recent growth rate in vehicles of less than 1 percent annually, so we are less affected by regional pollution and congestion, although global warming issues would still be a concern. Whatever India and China do (or fail to do) will have the major effect on greenhouse gas emissions. 2. Nothing will get people out of their cars and currently using mass-transit in the foreseeable future, not even much advanced fuel prices. Therefore, making the special passenger vehicle more environmentally-friendly is the key. 3. We are nowhere near peak oil. The quantity of original oil such as tar sands is quite large. 4. The best way to promote energy independence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to impose extremely important fuel mileage standards. Government should never “bet on a technology winner”, but should instead make performance-based goals the only degree of success, both for fuel mileage standards, and greenhouse gas tailpipe standards (both standards are linked). 5. Ethanol from corn probably is less environmentally beneficial than just using imported oil. 6. California is in a single position to influence public policy on sustainable transportation, and therefore can influence policy globally. 7. American car manufacturers commonly used perverse incentives to create gas-guzzling vehicles (be sure to widely read about how the “chicken tax” and truck-exemption for fuel mileage eventually led to the control of the truck, mini-van, and SUV in American car sales). The only way to end these perverse incentives is to remove the negative incentive and pass fuel efficiency rules. 8. One of the best hopes to increase fuel efficiency is to use plug-in hybrids. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells continue an mysterious dream. Quotes from last part of book “Driving Towards Sustainability”: “The world is still in denial about the amazing challenges it faces and the major transformation it must undertake. Achieving a 50 to 80 percent net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions isn’t something that businesses, consumers, and politicians can completely imagine.” “Policymakers must overcome the temptation to prescribe and mandate any one exact solution. Similarly, they must the temptation to pick winners. There’s an awkward tendency for technological experts and politicians alike to embrace “silver bullets” and pick winners. Innovation and technical changes are too dynamic and too difficult to predict.” “The most effective and least expensive way to reduce transportation oil use and greenhouse gas emissions is to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles.”