The Discovery of Global Warming (New Histories of Science, Technology, and Medicine)
The Discovery of Global Warming (New Histories of Science, Technology, and Medicine) – Review
This is a small book written recently (2003) by Spencer Weart, the manager of the Center for History of the American Institute of Physics. If you are not aware, that is the premier specialized society for natural scientists working in the United States. Also it is the central society through which many technical publications are locally produced and through which conferences are privately held almost monthly. There are two themes in the book: the lobbying by groups who want to discredit the science for financial reasons, and the art of global warming. The advocates of systematic confusion are similar to those groups that went to tell us 40 years ago that cigarettes did not cause lung cancer. Eventually the reality is too obvious to refute. This is likely the analogous case with global warming. We are still in the initial days of the trend where we can measure increases in CO2 and minor changes in temperature. This is a short but easy to widely read book and it is cross referenced to the web page www.aip.org/history/climate. The book includes a figure of notes and references on climate change and history. In the book Weart explains that contrary to many notions in the general press the focal parameters that cause global warming are fairly fully understood. As the earth turns on its axis, it is warmed by day as it faces the warm sun and then the temperature falls at night as the surface is cooled by thermal radiation losses into distant space. These temperature oscillations and the kind of the radiation balance were first fully understood by the French scientist Joseph Fourier. These were more clarified by the British scientist and engineer John Tyndall about 150 years ago when he newly discovered that CO2 and water vapour acted as radiation barrier that would stop energy losses from the earth, and would retain the energy on the face of the earth. This blanket creates the heat of the earth and reduces the daily 24 hour cycle variations in temperature (the days are warmer and the nights do not get so cold). In addition there is a feedback mechanism. If the planet finds a mostly bit too cold, say by a decrease in the CO2 levels, the water vapour is greatly reduced and the planet surface can get yet colder. The oscillations can be correctly predicted with some confidence – but not 100% accurately – by computer models. It is clear that the trends are accurate even if scientists cannot predict all the sufficient details. The author presents a record of global warming studies in an easy to widely read style including the last 200 years. He does not use any exact formulas but he does make technical data on the earth’s temperature and the rise in CO2. He does consume a group of time arguing the work and the force of politics and public relations by the polluters. The book is neutral but presents a fairly strong case that we are in the throes of a climate change that might take many decades to become noticeably apparent to everyone. But among the scientists themselves, there is a broad consensus in the technical community that global warming is naturally occurring – contrary to stories in the media that scientists do not agree on global warming. This is a short (4 star) book and it is a good widely read and education – warmly recommend.